Who's in. Who's out. And by how much.

The briefing

Ten things the market should know before 23 November

The verdict

Predicted changes, index by index

Probabilities are the share of 20,000 simulations, in which every free-float factor is redrawn from the model's own uncertainty band, that produce the same outcome. Prices and turnover were fixed at the 30 October reference date.

OMXS30 · Selection, step by step

Lifco misses the buffer by one place

The 71 liquid companies (6-month ADTV ≥ SEK 50m, one share line each), ranked by company-level free-float market cap at the 30 October reference date. Step through the rules exactly as the methodology applies them.

Benchmark indexes · The 85% machine

Inside each sector, the 85% mark decides

Within every ICB supersector, securities are taken in order of free-float market cap until cumulative coverage reaches 85%. The one that crosses the line still gets in, and the next one does not. The top 10% by 12-month turnover enter automatically, and the bottom 30% can never enter. Pick a supersector to watch it fill.

The capped twins

Same members, different weights

OMXSB Cap and OMXCB Cap hold exactly the same stocks as their parents, so they get the same additions and deletions. The difference is weight. Each company is capped at 4.5%, but the largest companies may go up to 9%, as long as all companies above 4.5% add up to no more than 36%. Most Swedish index money follows the capped version, led by Storebrand Sverige (SEK 20bn). In Copenhagen, the cap cuts Novo Nordisk from 30% to 9%.

Portfolio in motion

Watch the index rebalance

Each bubble is a constituent, sized by index weight. Run the rebalance: deletions drift to the exit lane, additions arrive from the entry lane, and every free-float revision resizes a holding.

Preliminary proforma

The new portfolios, day by day

Each proforma weight is the free-float-adjusted share count times the closing price, divided by the total. OMXS30 and OMXS30 ESG are ranked and capped at the reference date: the close of Fri 30 Oct, a half day 22 trading days before the effective date. OMXSB and OMXCB have no price fixing. Their weights are set at the close on Mon 30 Nov, which is also when trackers trade, so any weights shown at the 23 Nov announcement are only indicative. The capped versions, OMXSB Cap and OMXCB Cap, hold the same stocks but cap each company at 4.5%, or 9% for the largest names up to 36% in total. That capping is set at the close on 23 Nov, six trading days before the effective date, and Nasdaq rebalances daily if a company passes 10% or names above 5% exceed 40%. Days up to the latest price data use real Nasdaq closing prices. Later days hold every price flat at that close and are marked as projected.

Passive demand

From weights to money

Trackers must own the new weights by the close on 30 November. The estimated trade per security is the tracking capital times the change in weight (proforma weight minus current weight), both priced on the date chosen in the proforma above. Days of ADTV tell you whether the closing auction can absorb the trade.

The quiet trade

147 free-float revisions nobody headlines

Adds and deletes get the attention, but trackers also have to trade every free-float revision. The model reconciles each June factor with ownership filings up to 30 October and predicts the December factor. Bar opacity shows the model's confidence in its predicted value.

Proprietary rankings

Five lenses you won't find on a terminal

Stress test

How sure is the model? Mostly, very.

Once the 30 October reference date has passed, the prices and turnover used for selection are fixed. What can still move is the free-float factor Nasdaq applies, and for 512 securities the model records its confidence and the alternative values it considered. Each of the 20,000 runs draws every factor from that distribution and re-runs all four indexes.

Between now and 1 December

What could still change

After the 30 October reference date, ranks and selections are locked in. Three things can still change the outcome: corporate actions, the calls that sit close to a threshold, and Nasdaq's own discretion. Here is each of them, with what the methodology says happens next.

Corporate actions on the radar

If it happens, what do the rules say?

The calls that could still flip

For every Benchmark supersector, the last security inside the 85% line and the first one outside it, with the free-float market cap that separates them. A small gap means a modest free-float revision or price move could swap them.

Method & audit trail

Rebuilt from first principles

Sources

Check every number yourself

Every input on this page comes from a public document. Below are the index rules, the market data, the fund sizes and the full source register behind each security's free-float factor, share count and price. To verify a call independently, follow the five steps below.

Source register: